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Plymouth vs Bradford Prediction— England - League One

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Plymouth

PPG 1.24 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWL ·

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Bradford

PPG 1.54 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-19.4%0-25.6%0-32.2%0-4+0.9%1 1-010.6%1-112.7%1-27.5%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.2%2-18.5%2-25.1%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.2%3-13.8%3-22.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.7%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.7% 45.9% 2.18 -20.0%

Draw 27.4% 29.0% 3.45 -3.3%

Away win 35.9% 32.3% 3.10 +11.3%

Over 2.5 50.5% 55.6% 1.80 -9.1%

Over 3.5 28.7% 33.3% 3.00 -8.3%

BTTS 52.7% 61.7% 1.62 -14.6%

Home O1.5 38.0% 48.8% 2.05 -22.1%

Away O1.5 34.4% 39.2% 2.55 -12.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -49.2%

Bet Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.7%

H 37% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 7.9%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 0–1 9.4%

#5 1–0 10.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Plymouth1.3

Bradford1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PLYMOUTH · PPG 1.24

BRADFORD · PPG 1.54

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.16 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Plymouth (H) 36.7%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV -20.0%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -3.3%

Bradford (A) 35.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +11.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Plymouth face Bradford in England - League One on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Plymouth a 37% chance, the draw 27% and Bradford 36%, so Plymouth are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Plymouth and 1.2 for Bradford (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Plymouth are averaging 1.24 points per game versus 1.54 for Bradford. This match finished 2-0.

Plymouth vs Bradford Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - League One Predictions