Today / England - League One / Doncaster vs Barnsley

Doncaster vs Barnsley Prediction— England - League One

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 11:30

Doncaster

PPG 1.45 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDD ·

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Barnsley

PPG 1.26 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDW ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.3% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-18.5%0-24.7%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.2%1-112.4%1-26.9%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.2%2-19.0%2-25.0%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.0%3-14.4%3-22.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.2%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.6% 50.8% 1.97 -14.1%

Draw 28.4% 28.2% 3.55 +0.5%

Away win 28.0% 27.8% 3.60 +0.5%

Over 2.5 50.1% 57.8% 1.73 -13.3%

Over 3.5 28.1% 35.7% 2.80 -12.8%

BTTS 50.3% 63.7% 1.57 -21.0%

Home O1.5 40.0% 54.1% 1.85 -26.0%

Away O1.5 35.6% 37.7% 2.65 -5.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -49.2%

Bet Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob50.3%

H 44% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 11.2%

#3 0–0✓ 7.7%

#4 2–1 9.0%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Doncaster1.5

Barnsley1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

DONCASTER · PPG 1.45

BARNSLEY · PPG 1.26

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.35 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Doncaster (H) 43.6%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV -14.1%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +0.5%

Barnsley (A) 28.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +0.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Doncaster face Barnsley in England - League One on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Doncaster a 44% chance, the draw 28% and Barnsley 28%, so Doncaster are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Doncaster and 1.1 for Barnsley (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Doncaster are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 1.26 for Barnsley. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +6.8%. This match finished 0-0.

Doncaster vs Barnsley Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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