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AFC Wimbledon vs Wigan Prediction— England - League One

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 13:00

AFC Wimbledon

PPG 1.27 · HOME

LAST 5

LDW ··

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Wigan

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLL ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-17.9%0-24.4%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.7%1-112.1%1-26.8%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.2%2-19.3%2-25.2%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.2%3-14.7%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.6%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% 32.3% 3.10 +37.3%

Draw 26.6% 31.3% 3.20 -8.9%

Away win 29.0% 43.9% 2.28 -20.3%

Over 2.5 50.5% 47.6% 2.10 +6.0%

Over 3.5 29.8% 26.7% 3.75 +7.0%

BTTS 52.7% 56.5% 1.77 -6.7%

Home O1.5 42.3% 34.7% 2.88 +21.8%

Away O1.5 33.0% 43.5% 2.30 -24.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -49.2%

Bet Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.7%

H 44% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0✓ 10.7%

#4 2–0 8.2%

#5 0–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AFC Wimbledon1.5

Wigan1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 29.8%

Form & verdict PPG

AFC WIMBLEDON · PPG 1.27

WIGAN · PPG 0.89

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.41 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

AFC Wimbledon (H) 44.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +37.3%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -8.9%

Wigan (A) 29.0%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV -20.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

AFC Wimbledon face Wigan in England - League One on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AFC Wimbledon a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Wigan 29%, so AFC Wimbledon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for AFC Wimbledon and 1.1 for Wigan (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AFC Wimbledon are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 0.89 for Wigan. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +51.2%. This match finished 1-0.

AFC Wimbledon vs Wigan Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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