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Blackpool vs Peterborough Prediction— England - League One

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 11:30

Blackpool

PPG 1.57 · HOME

LAST 5

DWW ··

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Peterborough

PPG 0.98 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLD ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-17.3%0-23.8%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.4%1-111.8%1-26.1%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.2%2-19.5%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.9%3-15.1%3-22.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-13.0%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.7% 55.2% 1.81 -11.8%

Draw 26.6% 26.0% 3.85 +1.5%

Away win 24.7% 25.6% 3.90 -2.2%

Over 2.5 50.5% 61.7% 1.62 -18.2%

Over 3.5 29.7% 39.2% 2.55 -14.6%

BTTS 52.7% 63.7% 1.57 -17.3%

Home O1.5 48.8% 58.8% 1.70 -17.0%

Away O1.5 32.6% 37.0% 2.70 -12.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -49.2%

Bet Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.7%

H 49% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–0 11.4%

#3 2–1 9.5%

#4 2–0 9.2%

#5 0–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Blackpool1.6

Peterborough1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 29.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BLACKPOOL · PPG 1.57

PETERBOROUGH · PPG 0.98

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.57 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Blackpool (H) 48.7%

ODDS 1.81 · IMPLIED 55.2% EV -11.8%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +1.5%

Peterborough (A) 24.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -2.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Blackpool face Peterborough in England - League One on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Blackpool a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Peterborough 25%, so Blackpool are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Blackpool and 1.0 for Peterborough (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Blackpool are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 0.98 for Peterborough. This match finished 4-0.

Blackpool vs Peterborough Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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