Leagues / ENGLAND / Championship
Championship
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 46 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
50.0%
1X2
23/46
58.7%
O/U 2.5
27/46
45.7%
BTTS
21/46
54.3%
Exact score
25/46
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
35
Settled
54.3%
Hit rate
19/35
1.79
Avg odds
-12.7%
ROI
-4.5u
Picks by market
HOME WIN · N=18 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.90 · -21.2% ROI
BTTS · N=14 57.1% HIT · AVG 1.64 · -7.7% ROI
OVER 2.5 · N=2 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.72 · +71.5% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=1 0.0% HIT · AVG 2.00 · -100.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
3
Bets
67%
Hit
+11.3%
ROI
✓ Solid
5
Bets
20%
Hit
-65.0%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
8
Bets
63%
Hit
+5.4%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
19
Bets
58%
Hit
-10.4%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
May 2026 // 7 PICKS · 4 HIT · 3 MISS
2 MAY Wrexham vs Middlesbrough BTTS -12% 2–2 HIT2 MAY Swansea City vs Charlton — NO PICK 3–1 —2 MAY Sheffield Wed vs West Brom — NO PICK 2–1 —2 MAY Preston vs Southampton BTTS -13% 1–3 HIT2 MAY Portsmouth vs Birmingham City — NO PICK 1–1 —2 MAY Millwall vs Oxford Utd — NO PICK 2–0 —2 MAY Hull City vs Norwich City BTTS -11% 2–1 HIT2 MAY Derby County vs Sheffield Utd BTTS -8% 1–2 HIT2 MAY Bristol City vs Stoke City BTTS -23% 2–0 MISS2 MAY Blackburn vs Leicester City BTTS -17% 0–1 MISS2 MAY Watford vs Coventry City BTTS -15% 0–4 MISS