Championship

ENGLAND · 76 MATCHES TRACKED · 14 APR 2026 – 2 SEPT 2026

▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE

SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 75 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

45.3%

1X2

34/75

56.0%

O/U 2.5

42/75

53.3%

BTTS

40/75

52.0%

Exact score

39/75

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

55.0%

Hit rate

11/20

2.01

Avg odds

-5.0%

ROI

-1.0u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

HOME WIN · N=10 40.0% HIT · AVG 2.21 · -32.0% ROI

BTTS · N=6 83.3% HIT · AVG 1.76 · +46.3% ROI

OVER 2.5 · N=3 66.7% HIT · AVG 1.84 · +14.3% ROI

AWAY WIN · N=1 0.0% HIT · AVG 2.00 · -100.0% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

🎯 Strong bet

Bets

67%

Hit

+11.3%

ROI

✓ Solid

Bets

Hit

-100.0%

ROI

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

67%

Hit

+18.7%

ROI

⚠ Low confidence

Bets

75%

Hit

+24.7%

ROI

Match log

75 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

September 2026 // 9 PICKS · 5 HIT · 4 MISS

2 SEPT QPR vs Cardiff BTTS -10% 2–1 HIT 2 SEPT Millwall vs Wrexham BTTS -3% 0–3 MISS 2 SEPT West Brom vs Charlton BTTS +8% 1–1 HIT 2 SEPT Burnley vs Middlesbrough BTTS -2% 1–1 HIT 1 SEPT Swansea vs Watford BTTS -8% 2–0 MISS 1 SEPT Portsmouth vs Derby BTTS +7% 0–2 MISS 1 SEPT Preston vs Bristol City BTTS -7% 1–3 HIT 1 SEPT Birmingham vs Southampton BTTS +0% 1–1 HIT 1 SEPT Stoke City vs Norwich BTTS -0% 1–0 MISS

August 2026 // 6 PICKS · 4 HIT · 2 MISS

29 AUG Middlesbrough vs West Brom BTTS -5% 3–1 HIT 29 AUG Derby vs Swansea BTTS -5% 0–3 MISS 29 AUG Bristol City vs Portsmouth BTTS +1% 2–1 HIT 29 AUG Southampton vs Millwall BTTS -8% 5–1 HIT 29 AUG Charlton vs Preston Over 2.5 +11% 1–0 MISS 29 AUG Blackburn vs QPR BTTS -8% 1–2 HIT