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West Brom vs Charlton Prediction— England - Championship

Matchday 4 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 18:45

West Brom

PPG 1.74 · HOME

LAST 5

WWL ··

UPCOMING

Charlton

PPG 1.46 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWW ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.2% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-18.7%0-25.1%0-32.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.6%1-112.4%1-27.3%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.6%2-18.9%2-25.2%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.6%3-14.2%3-22.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.1%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.6% 56.8% 1.76 -23.3%

Draw 25.1% 28.2% 3.55 -6.5%

Away win 31.3% 22.0% 4.55 +42.4%

Over 2.5 53.8% 47.6% 2.10 +13.0%

Over 3.5 31.6% 26.7% 3.75 +18.5%

BTTS 55.2% 51.3% 1.95 +7.6%

Home O1.5 39.9% 51.3% 1.95 -22.2%

Away O1.5 33.2% 25.6% 3.90 +29.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -10.2%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.2%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–0 10.6%

#4 2–0 7.6%

#5 1–2 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

West Brom1.4

Charlton1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

WEST BROM · PPG 1.74

CHARLTON · PPG 1.46

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.25 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

West Brom (H) 43.6%

ODDS 1.76 · IMPLIED 56.8% EV -23.3%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -6.5%

Charlton (A) 31.3%

ODDS 4.55 · IMPLIED 22.0% EV +42.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

West Brom face Charlton in England - Championship on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives West Brom a 44% chance, the draw 25% and Charlton 31%, so West Brom are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for West Brom and 1.2 for Charlton (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, West Brom are averaging 1.74 points per game versus 1.46 for Charlton. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +34.5%.

West Brom vs Charlton Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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