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Millwall vs Wrexham Prediction— England - Championship

Matchday 4 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 18:45

Millwall

PPG 1.89 · HOME

LAST 5

WWL ··

UPCOMING

Wrexham

PPG 1.41 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDL ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-17.3%0-24.1%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.5%1-111.8%1-26.6%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.4%2-19.5%2-25.3%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.5%3-15.1%3-22.8%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.9%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.9% 45.0% 2.22 +4.1%

Draw 24.5% 30.3% 3.30 -11.5%

Away win 28.6% 31.3% 3.20 -5.1%

Over 2.5 53.8% 51.8% 1.93 +3.8%

Over 3.5 31.7% 29.9% 3.35 +6.2%

BTTS 55.9% 57.8% 1.73 -3.3%

Home O1.5 47.9% 46.5% 2.15 +3.0%

Away O1.5 33.2% 36.4% 2.75 -8.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -10.2%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.9%

H 47% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 10.5%

#4 2–0 8.4%

#5 1–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Millwall1.6

Wrexham1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MILLWALL · PPG 1.89

WREXHAM · PPG 1.41

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.49 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Millwall (H) 46.9%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV +4.1%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -11.5%

Wrexham (A) 28.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -5.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Millwall face Wrexham in England - Championship on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Millwall a 47% chance, the draw 25% and Wrexham 29%, so Millwall are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Millwall and 1.1 for Wrexham (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Millwall are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.41 for Wrexham. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +6.7%.

Millwall vs Wrexham Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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