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Stoke City vs Norwich Prediction— England - Championship

Matchday 4 ·Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 19:00

Stoke City

PPG 1.21 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLW ·

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Norwich

PPG 1.26 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-17.8%0-25.6%0-32.6%0-4+1.3%1 1-08.1%1-111.5%1-28.2%1-33.9%1-4+1.9%2 2-06.0%2-18.5%2-26.1%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.9%3-14.2%3-23.0%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.2%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.5% 33.3% 3.00 +15.5%

Draw 24.0% 29.0% 3.45 -10.3%

Away win 37.6% 44.6% 2.24 -15.8%

Over 2.5 59.7% 55.6% 1.80 +7.5%

Over 3.5 36.6% 33.3% 3.00 +9.8%

BTTS 61.5% 61.7% 1.62 -0.4%

Home O1.5 39.9% 40.8% 2.45 -2.2%

Away O1.5 42.2% 48.8% 2.05 -13.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -10.2%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.5%

H 38% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–2 8.2%

#3 2–1 8.5%

#4 1–0✓ 8.1%

#5 0–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stoke City1.5

Norwich1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

STOKE CITY · PPG 1.21

NORWICH · PPG 1.26

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.05 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Stoke City (H) 38.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +15.5%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -10.3%

Norwich (A) 37.6%

ODDS 2.24 · IMPLIED 44.6% EV -15.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stoke City face Norwich in England - Championship on Tuesday, September 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stoke City a 39% chance, the draw 24% and Norwich 38%, so Stoke City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Stoke City and 1.4 for Norwich (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stoke City are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 1.26 for Norwich. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +15.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Stoke City vs Norwich Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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