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Derby vs Swansea Prediction— England - Championship

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 11:30

Derby

PPG 1.45 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLW ·

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Swansea

PPG 1.53 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-18.8%0-25.3%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.4%1-112.4%1-27.4%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.3%2-18.8%2-25.3%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.5%3-14.1%3-22.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.0%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.8% 43.9% 2.28 -9.3%

Draw 27.1% 30.8% 3.25 -7.2%

Away win 33.0% 32.3% 3.10 +2.3%

Over 2.5 50.5% 47.6% 2.10 +6.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 26.7% 3.75 +4.6%

BTTS 52.7% 55.6% 1.80 -5.1%

Home O1.5 40.1% 43.5% 2.30 -7.8%

Away O1.5 35.2% 34.7% 2.88 +1.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -10.2%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.7%

H 40% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–0 10.4%

#4 0–0 7.4%

#5 1–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Derby1.4

Swansea1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DERBY · PPG 1.45

SWANSEA · PPG 1.53

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.22 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Derby (H) 39.8%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV -9.3%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -7.2%

Swansea (A) 33.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +2.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Derby face Swansea in England - Championship on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Derby a 40% chance, the draw 27% and Swansea 33%, so Derby are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Derby and 1.2 for Swansea (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Derby are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 1.53 for Swansea. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +6.0%. This match finished 0-3.

Derby vs Swansea Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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