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Charlton vs Preston Prediction— England - Championship

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Charlton

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

WWW ··

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Preston

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLL ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+10.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-17.4%0-24.0%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.0%1-111.9%1-26.4%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.8%2-19.5%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.7%3-15.0%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.9%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% 48.1% 2.08 +6.1%

Draw 24.4% 30.3% 3.30 -11.7%

Away win 24.6% 28.6% 3.50 -8.3%

Over 2.5 52.7% 47.6% 2.10 +10.7%

Over 3.5 31.1% 26.3% 3.80 +18.2%

BTTS 53.0% 54.1% 1.85 -1.9%

Home O1.5 47.9% 45.5% 2.20 +5.4%

Away O1.5 32.7% 31.3% 3.20 +4.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -10.2%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.0%

H 51% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0✓ 11.0%

#4 2–0 8.8%

#5 0–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Charlton1.6

Preston1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CHARLTON · PPG 1.67

PRESTON · PPG 1.12

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.52 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Charlton (H) 51.0%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV +6.1%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -11.7%

Preston (A) 24.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -8.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Charlton face Preston in England - Championship on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Charlton a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Preston 25%, so Charlton are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Charlton and 1.1 for Preston (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Charlton are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.12 for Preston. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Charlton vs Preston Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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