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Middlesbrough vs West Brom Prediction— England - Championship

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 11:30

Middlesbrough

PPG 1.91 · HOME

LAST 5

WLW ··

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

West Brom

PPG 1.39 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWL ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-18.3%0-24.8%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.6%1-112.2%1-27.1%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.9%2-19.1%2-25.2%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.9%3-14.5%3-22.6%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.3%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.9% 57.5% 1.74 -23.6%

Draw 26.6% 26.7% 3.75 -0.1%

Away win 29.5% 22.7% 4.40 +17.9%

Over 2.5 51.1% 54.6% 1.83 -6.5%

Over 3.5 30.6% 32.3% 3.10 -5.1%

BTTS 54.3% 57.1% 1.75 -5.0%

Home O1.5 40.1% 56.5% 1.77 -29.0%

Away O1.5 33.0% 30.3% 3.30 +8.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -10.2%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.3%

H 44% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–0 10.6%

#4 0–0 7.2%

#5 2–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Middlesbrough1.5

West Brom1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.1% · O3.5 PROB 30.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MIDDLESBROUGH · PPG 1.91

WEST BROM · PPG 1.39

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.33 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Middlesbrough (H) 43.9%

ODDS 1.74 · IMPLIED 57.5% EV -23.6%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -0.1%

West Brom (A) 29.5%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +17.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Middlesbrough face West Brom in England - Championship on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Middlesbrough a 44% chance, the draw 27% and West Brom 30%, so Middlesbrough are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Middlesbrough and 1.2 for West Brom (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Middlesbrough are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 1.39 for West Brom. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +20.0%. This match finished 3-1.

Middlesbrough vs West Brom Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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