Today / England - Championship / Burnley vs Middlesbrough

Burnley vs Middlesbrough Prediction— England - Championship

Matchday 4 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 19:00

Burnley

PPG 1.42 · HOME

LAST 5

DLL ··

UPCOMING

Middlesbrough

PPG 1.26 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLW ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-17.4%0-25.8%0-33.0%0-4+1.7%1 1-07.0%1-111.0%1-28.6%1-34.5%1-4+2.5%2 2-05.2%2-18.2%2-26.4%2-33.3%2-4+1.9%3 3-02.6%3-14.1%3-23.2%3-31.7%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.1%4+-21.6%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.0% 36.4% 2.75 -3.8%

Draw 23.3% 28.6% 3.50 -11.1%

Away win 41.6% 42.0% 2.38 -1.0%

Over 2.5 61.4% 56.5% 1.77 +8.7%

Over 3.5 40.1% 34.5% 2.90 +16.3%

BTTS 61.5% 62.5% 1.60 -1.6%

Home O1.5 39.9% 43.5% 2.30 -8.2%

Away O1.5 47.9% 46.5% 2.15 +3.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -10.2%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob61.5%

A 42% / xG 1.5-1.6 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 8.2%

#4 0–2 5.8%

#5 0–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Burnley1.5

Middlesbrough1.6

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 40.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BURNLEY · PPG 1.42

MIDDLESBROUGH · PPG 1.26

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.08 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Burnley (H) 35.0%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -3.8%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -11.1%

Middlesbrough (A) 41.6%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -1.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Burnley face Middlesbrough in England - Championship on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Burnley a 35% chance, the draw 23% and Middlesbrough 42%, so Middlesbrough are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Burnley and 1.6 for Middlesbrough (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Burnley are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 1.26 for Middlesbrough. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +16.3%.

Burnley vs Middlesbrough Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - Championship Predictions