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QPR vs Cardiff Prediction— England - Championship

Matchday 4 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 18:45

QPR

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

WDW ··

UPCOMING

Cardiff

PPG 1.42 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDD ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 56.1% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-17.1%0-24.3%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.5%1-111.5%1-27.0%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.7%2-19.4%2-25.7%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.2%3-15.1%3-23.1%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.0%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 52.6% 1.90 -11.7%

Draw 24.2% 26.7% 3.75 -5.5%

Away win 29.3% 27.8% 3.60 +3.3%

Over 2.5 53.8% 59.9% 1.67 -10.2%

Over 3.5 34.3% 37.0% 2.70 -7.4%

BTTS 56.1% 62.5% 1.60 -10.2%

Home O1.5 48.1% 56.5% 1.77 -14.9%

Away O1.5 36.8% 37.7% 2.65 -2.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -10.2%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob56.1%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 9.5%

#4 2–0 7.7%

#5 1–2 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

QPR1.6

Cardiff1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 34.3%

Form & verdict PPG

QPR · PPG 1.38

CARDIFF · PPG 1.42

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.41 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

QPR (H) 46.5%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -11.7%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -5.5%

Cardiff (A) 29.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +3.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

QPR face Cardiff in England - Championship on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives QPR a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Cardiff 29%, so QPR are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for QPR and 1.2 for Cardiff (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, QPR are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.42 for Cardiff. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +6.2%.

QPR vs Cardiff Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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