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Preston vs Bristol City Prediction— England - Championship

Matchday 4 ·Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 18:45

Preston

PPG 1.17 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLL ·

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Bristol City

PPG 1.34 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-19.1%0-25.9%0-32.6%0-4+1.1%1 1-09.5%1-112.4%1-28.0%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.5%2-18.4%2-25.5%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.9%3-13.8%3-22.5%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.8%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.5% 39.4% 2.54 -2.2%

Draw 25.2% 30.8% 3.25 -10.9%

Away win 36.3% 37.0% 2.70 -2.0%

Over 2.5 53.8% 52.6% 1.90 +2.2%

Over 3.5 31.7% 30.8% 3.25 +3.0%

BTTS 55.9% 59.9% 1.67 -6.7%

Home O1.5 39.5% 43.5% 2.30 -9.2%

Away O1.5 39.8% 41.7% 2.40 -4.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -10.2%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.9%

H 38% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 1–0 9.5%

#5 0–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Preston1.4

Bristol City1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PRESTON · PPG 1.17

BRISTOL CITY · PPG 1.34

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.06 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Preston (H) 38.5%

ODDS 2.54 · IMPLIED 39.4% EV -2.2%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -10.9%

Bristol City (A) 36.3%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -2.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Preston face Bristol City in England - Championship on Tuesday, September 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Preston a 39% chance, the draw 25% and Bristol City 36%, so Preston are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Preston and 1.3 for Bristol City (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Preston are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.34 for Bristol City. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +3.0%. This match finished 1-3.

Preston vs Bristol City Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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