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Blackburn vs QPR Prediction— England - Championship

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Blackburn

PPG 1.43 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLD ·

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

QPR

PPG 1.53 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDW ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.8% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-18.9%0-25.3%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.4%1-112.5%1-27.5%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.3%2-18.8%2-25.2%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.4%3-14.1%3-22.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.0%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.7% 43.1% 2.32 -3.3%

Draw 27.6% 30.8% 3.25 -6.2%

Away win 30.7% 33.3% 3.00 -7.9%

Over 2.5 50.5% 50.0% 2.00 +1.0%

Over 3.5 28.9% 28.2% 3.55 +1.6%

BTTS 52.8% 57.1% 1.75 -7.6%

Home O1.5 40.1% 43.5% 2.30 -7.8%

Away O1.5 35.4% 36.4% 2.75 -2.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -10.2%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.8%

H 42% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–0 10.4%

#4 0–0 7.4%

#5 2–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Blackburn1.4

QPR1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BLACKBURN · PPG 1.43

QPR · PPG 1.53

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.21 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Blackburn (H) 41.7%

ODDS 2.32 · IMPLIED 43.1% EV -3.3%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -6.2%

QPR (A) 30.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -7.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Blackburn face QPR in England - Championship on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Blackburn a 42% chance, the draw 28% and QPR 31%, so Blackburn are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Blackburn and 1.2 for QPR (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Blackburn are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.53 for QPR. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.6%. This match finished 1-2.

Blackburn vs QPR Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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