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Southampton vs Millwall Prediction— England - Championship

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Southampton

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWD ·

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Millwall

PPG 1.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.0% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-18.9%0-25.5%0-32.3%0-4+0.9%1 1-010.0%1-112.4%1-27.7%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.0%2-18.7%2-25.4%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.2%3-14.0%3-22.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.9%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.4% 52.6% 1.90 -27.0%

Draw 26.6% 27.8% 3.60 -2.5%

Away win 34.9% 26.7% 3.75 +30.9%

Over 2.5 50.5% 55.6% 1.80 -9.1%

Over 3.5 30.3% 33.3% 3.00 -9.1%

BTTS 54.0% 58.8% 1.70 -8.2%

Home O1.5 39.7% 54.1% 1.85 -26.6%

Away O1.5 36.6% 34.5% 2.90 +6.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -5.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.0%

H 38% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 7.7%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 0–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Southampton1.4

Millwall1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 30.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SOUTHAMPTON · PPG 2.00

MILLWALL · PPG 1.89

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.16 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Southampton (H) 38.4%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -27.0%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -2.5%

Millwall (A) 34.9%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +30.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Southampton face Millwall in England - Championship on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Southampton a 38% chance, the draw 27% and Millwall 35%, so Southampton are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Southampton and 1.2 for Millwall (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Southampton are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.89 for Millwall. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +10.7%. This match finished 5-1.

Southampton vs Millwall Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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