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Portsmouth vs Derby Prediction— England - Championship

Matchday 4 ·Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 18:45

Portsmouth

PPG 1.14 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLL ·

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Derby

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.5% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-17.2%0-24.6%0-32.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-09.0%1-111.5%1-27.4%1-33.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.2%2-19.2%2-25.9%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.8%3-14.9%3-23.1%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.8%4+-21.8%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.1% 46.5% 2.15 -0.9%

Draw 24.2% 29.9% 3.35 -11.4%

Away win 29.7% 30.8% 3.25 -2.1%

Over 2.5 59.6% 50.0% 2.00 +19.2%

Over 3.5 36.4% 28.2% 3.55 +29.2%

BTTS 60.5% 56.5% 1.77 +7.1%

Home O1.5 47.7% 45.5% 2.20 +4.9%

Away O1.5 37.7% 35.1% 2.85 +7.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -10.2%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.5%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–0 9.0%

#4 2–0 7.2%

#5 1–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Portsmouth1.6

Derby1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PORTSMOUTH · PPG 1.14

DERBY · PPG 1.21

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.32 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Portsmouth (H) 46.1%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -0.9%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -11.4%

Derby (A) 29.7%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -2.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Portsmouth face Derby in England - Championship on Tuesday, September 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Portsmouth a 46% chance, the draw 24% and Derby 30%, so Portsmouth are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Portsmouth and 1.3 for Derby (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Portsmouth are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 1.21 for Derby. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +29.2%. This match finished 0-2.

Portsmouth vs Derby Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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