Premier League

BELARUS · 54 MATCHES TRACKED · 14 MAY 2026 – 4 JUL 2026

▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE

SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 54 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

53.7%

1X2

29/54

53.7%

O/U 2.5

29/54

33.3%

BTTS

18/54

40.7%

Exact score

22/54

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

53.8%

Hit rate

14/26

1.68

Avg odds

-16.9%

ROI

-4.4u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

HOME WIN · N=11 63.6% HIT · AVG 1.48 · -10.1% ROI

BTTS · N=11 27.3% HIT · AVG 1.93 · -50.5% ROI

AWAY WIN · N=4 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.56 · +56.5% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

🎯 Strong bet

Bets

Hit

-100.0%

ROI

✓ Solid

Bets

40%

Hit

-36.0%

ROI

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

Hit

-100.0%

ROI

⚠ Low confidence

Bets

63%

Hit

-3.2%

ROI

Match log

54 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

July 2026 // 4 PICKS · 2 HIT · 2 MISS

4 JUL Vitebsk vs Dnepr Mogilev — NO PICK 1–0 —4 JUL Neman Grodno vs Arsenal D. BTTS +3% 0–1 MISS 3 JUL Naftan vs Dinamo Brest Away -23% 2–4 HIT 2 JUL BATE Borisov vs Gomel — NO PICK 0–1 —2 JUL FC Minsk vs Dinamo Minsk BTTS +1% 0–3 MISS 1 JUL Slavia Mozyr vs ML Vitebsk Away -2% 2–4 HIT

June 2026 // 7 PICKS · 5 HIT · 2 MISS

28 JUN Dnepr Mogilev vs Neman Grodno — NO PICK 2–0 —28 JUN Isloch vs Belshina Home -14% 4–0 HIT 27 JUN T. Zhodino vs BATE Borisov Home -16% 3–0 HIT 27 JUN ML Vitebsk vs Naftan Home -20% 2–1 HIT 27 JUN Dinamo Brest vs FC Minsk BTTS +0% 0–0 MISS 27 JUN Dinamo Minsk vs Vitebsk Home -16% 1–1 MISS 26 JUN Baranovichi vs Slavia Mozyr — NO PICK 1–1 —26 JUN Arsenal D. vs Gomel BTTS -4% 1–1 HIT 21 JUN FC Minsk vs ML Vitebsk BTTS -3% 2–2 HIT