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Dinamo Minsk vs Vitebsk Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Matchday 13 ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 17:30

Dinamo Minsk

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Vitebsk

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.2% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-16.5%0-22.2%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.9%1-110.9%1-23.7%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.2%2-19.1%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.3%3-15.0%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-13.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.2% 66.7% 1.50 -15.7%

Draw 24.1% 28.6% 3.50 -9.4%

Away win 19.7% 16.7% 6.00 +10.9%

Over 2.5 49.8% 52.1% 1.92 -4.4%

Over 3.5 28.6% 32.1% 3.12 -6.5%

BTTS 48.1% 50.0% 2.00 -3.8%

Home O1.5 52.6% 59.2% 1.69 -11.1%

Away O1.5 22.9% 19.2% 5.20 +11.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -100.0%

Bet Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.1%

H 56% / xG 1.7-0.7 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.9%

#2 2–0 13.2%

#3 1–1✓ 10.9%

#4 0–0 9.5%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dinamo Minsk1.7

Vitebsk0.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.8% · O3.5 PROB 28.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DINAMO MINSK · PPG 2.00

VITEBSK · PPG 0.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=56.2%

Win probability 1X2

Dinamo Minsk (H) 56.2%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -15.7%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.4%

Vitebsk (A) 19.7%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +10.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dinamo Minsk face Vitebsk in Belarus - Premier League on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dinamo Minsk a 56% chance, the draw 24% and Vitebsk 20%, so Dinamo Minsk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Dinamo Minsk and 0.7 for Vitebsk (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dinamo Minsk are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.83 for Vitebsk. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +11.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Dinamo Minsk vs Vitebsk Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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