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Naftan vs Dinamo Brest Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Matchday 14 ·Friday, July 3, 2026, 13:00

Naftan

PPG 0.86 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLLL

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Dinamo Brest

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLDL

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 55.1% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.5%0-120.6%0-214.6%0-36.9%0-4+3.3%1 1-07.4%1-110.5%1-27.5%1-33.5%1-4+1.7%2 2-01.9%2-12.7%2-21.9%2-30.9%2-4+0.4%3 3-00.3%3-10.5%3-20.3%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 18.2% 15.4% 6.50 +11.0%

Draw 26.7% 25.6% 3.90 +2.5%

Away win 55.1% 71.4% 1.40 -22.9%

Over 2.5 44.3% 55.9% 1.79 -20.7%

Over 3.5 23.4% 36.2% 2.76 -21.3%

BTTS 46.5% 54.1% 1.85 -14.0%

Home O1.5 25.4% 20.2% 4.95 +15.4%

Away O1.5 39.8% 63.7% 1.57 -37.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -100.0%

Bet Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob46.5%

A 55% / xG 0.5-1.4 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 20.6%

#2 0–0 14.5%

#3 0–2 14.6%

#4 1–1 10.5%

#5 1–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Naftan0.5

Dinamo Brest1.4

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.3% · O3.5 PROB 23.4%

Form & verdict PPG

NAFTAN · PPG 0.86

DINAMO BREST · PPG 1.57

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.57) vs Home POOR (0.86)

Win probability 1X2

Naftan (H) 18.2%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +11.0%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +2.5%

Dinamo Brest (A) 55.1%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -22.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Naftan face Dinamo Brest in Belarus - Premier League on Friday, July 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Naftan a 18% chance, the draw 27% and Dinamo Brest 55%, so Dinamo Brest are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for Naftan and 1.4 for Dinamo Brest (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Naftan are averaging 0.86 points per game versus 1.57 for Dinamo Brest. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +15.4%. This match finished 2-4.

Naftan vs Dinamo Brest Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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