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Vitebsk vs Dnepr Mogilev Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Matchday 14 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 13:00

Vitebsk

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Dnepr Mogilev

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDDD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.4%0-110.3%0-24.0%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.6%1-112.8%1-24.9%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.3%2-17.9%2-23.1%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.3%3-13.3%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.3%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.9% 46.5% 2.15 +0.8%

Draw 29.2% 33.3% 3.00 -7.4%

Away win 24.0% 32.3% 3.10 -15.4%

Over 2.5 44.3% 45.7% 2.19 -3.0%

Over 3.5 23.4% 26.0% 3.85 -5.9%

BTTS 48.5% 54.1% 1.85 -10.3%

Home O1.5 40.6% 41.8% 2.39 -3.0%

Away O1.5 22.5% 31.1% 3.22 -16.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -100.0%

Bet Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.5%

H 47% / xG 1.2-0.8 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.4%

#2 1–1 12.8%

#3 1–0✓ 16.6%

#4 2–0 10.3%

#5 0–1 10.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vitebsk1.2

Dnepr Mogilev0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.3% · O3.5 PROB 23.4%

Form & verdict PPG

VITEBSK · PPG 1.33

DNEPR MOGILEV · PPG 0.71

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away POOR (0.71)

Win probability 1X2

Vitebsk (H) 46.9%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +0.8%

Draw 29.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -7.4%

Dnepr Mogilev (A) 24.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -15.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vitebsk face Dnepr Mogilev in Belarus - Premier League on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vitebsk a 47% chance, the draw 29% and Dnepr Mogilev 24%, so Vitebsk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Vitebsk and 0.8 for Dnepr Mogilev (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vitebsk are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.71 for Dnepr Mogilev. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +0.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Vitebsk vs Dnepr Mogilev Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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