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ML Vitebsk vs Naftan Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 13:30

ML Vitebsk

PPG 1.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

Naftan

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 70.3% vs bookmaker-implied 87.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-12.3%0-20.6%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-011.2%1-16.1%1-21.6%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-014.6%2-17.9%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-012.7%3-16.9%3-21.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-015.4%4+-18.4%4+-22.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 70.3% 1.14 -19.9%

Draw 18.9% 6.50 +13.7%

Away win 10.8% 17.00 +50.2%

Over 2.5 64.1% 1.43 -8.3%

Over 3.5 39.8% 2.19 -12.8%

BTTS 48.1% 2.20 +5.8%

Home Over 1.5 61.9% 1.23 -23.9%

Away Over 1.5 18.0% 8.60 +32.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 31%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.1%

H 70% / xG 2.6-0.5 / O2.5 64% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.6%

#2 3–0 12.7%

#3 1–0 11.2%

#4 4–0 8.3%

#5 2–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ML Vitebsk2.6

Naftan0.5

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ML VITEBSK · PPG 1.20

NAFTAN · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

ML Vitebsk (H) 70.3%

ODDS 1.14 · IMPLIED 87.7% EV -19.9%

Draw 18.9%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +13.7%

Naftan (A) 10.8%

ODDS 17.00 · IMPLIED 5.9% EV +50.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

ML Vitebsk face Naftan in Belarus - Premier League on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ML Vitebsk a 70% chance, the draw 19% and Naftan 11%, so ML Vitebsk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for ML Vitebsk and 0.5 for Naftan (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ML Vitebsk are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.00 for Naftan. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +50.2%.

ML Vitebsk vs Naftan Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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