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Arsenal D. vs Gomel Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Regular Season - 13 ·Friday, June 26, 2026, 17:00

Arsenal D.

PPG 1.40 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Gomel

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.7% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.2%0-113.5%0-28.1%0-33.3%0-4+1.3%1 1-011.0%1-113.3%1-28.0%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-05.4%2-16.5%2-23.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-01.8%3-12.1%3-21.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 33.5% 4.00 +34.0%

Draw 29.5% 3.10 -5.1%

Away win 37.0% 1.85 -31.6%

Over 2.5 47.4% 2.05 -2.8%

Over 3.5 27.9% 3.44 -2.4%

BTTS 51.7% 1.85 -4.3%

Home Over 1.5 35.5% 3.72 +32.1%

Away Over 1.5 38.8% 2.02 -21.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 31%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob51.7%

D 30% / xG 1.0-1.2 / U2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.3%

#2 0–0 11.2%

#3 0–1 13.5%

#4 1–0 11.0%

#5 0–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arsenal D.1.0

Gomel1.2

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.4% · O3.5 PROB 27.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ARSENAL D. · PPG 1.40

GOMEL · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.40), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Arsenal D. (H) 33.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +34.0%

Draw 29.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -5.1%

Gomel (A) 37.0%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -31.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arsenal D. face Gomel in Belarus - Premier League on Friday, June 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arsenal D. a 34% chance, the draw 30% and Gomel 37%, so Gomel are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Arsenal D. and 1.2 for Gomel (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arsenal D. are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.33 for Gomel. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +34.0%. This match finished 1-1.

Arsenal D. vs Gomel Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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