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T. Zhodino vs BATE Borisov Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 11:30

T. Zhodino

PPG 1.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

BATE Borisov

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.0% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.4%0-19.8%0-22.6%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-021.3%1-111.4%1-23.0%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.3%2-16.6%2-21.8%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-04.8%3-12.5%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-10.9%4+-20.3%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 52.0% 1.62 -15.8%

Draw 28.5% 3.30 -3.6%

Away win 19.5% 5.00 -1.5%

Over 2.5 37.3% 2.03 -24.3%

Over 3.5 18.6% 3.30 -23.2%

BTTS 47.1% 1.95 -8.2%

Home Over 1.5 35.5% 1.85 -34.3%

Away Over 1.5 18.0% 4.70 -9.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 31%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob47.1%

H 52% / xG 1.2-0.5 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.4%

#2 1–0 21.3%

#3 1–1 11.4%

#4 2–0 12.3%

#5 0–1 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

T. Zhodino1.2

BATE Borisov0.5

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.3% · O3.5 PROB 18.6%

Form & verdict PPG

T. ZHODINO · PPG 1.29

BATE BORISOV · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.29) > Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

T. Zhodino (H) 52.0%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -15.8%

Draw 28.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -3.6%

BATE Borisov (A) 19.5%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -1.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

T. Zhodino face BATE Borisov in Belarus - Premier League on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives T. Zhodino a 52% chance, the draw 28% and BATE Borisov 20%, so T. Zhodino are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for T. Zhodino and 0.5 for BATE Borisov (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, T. Zhodino are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 0.67 for BATE Borisov.

T. Zhodino vs BATE Borisov Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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