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BATE Borisov vs Gomel Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Matchday 14 ·Thursday, July 2, 2026, 15:00

BATE Borisov

PPG 0.83 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWDW

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Gomel

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWDW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.2%0-118.2%0-210.9%0-34.3%0-4+1.7%1 1-010.4%1-112.5%1-27.5%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-03.6%2-14.3%2-22.6%2-31.0%2-4+0.4%3 3-00.8%3-11.0%3-20.6%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.4% 25.0% 4.00 -3.8%

Draw 30.4% 33.3% 3.00 -8.8%

Away win 46.2% 54.1% 1.85 -14.5%

Over 2.5 44.3% 46.7% 2.14 -5.2%

Over 3.5 23.4% 27.6% 3.62 -9.2%

BTTS 48.5% 52.4% 1.91 -7.4%

Home O1.5 33.7% 26.2% 3.82 +28.7%

Away O1.5 38.2% 47.4% 2.11 -19.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -100.0%

Bet Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob48.5%

A 46% / xG 0.7-1.2 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.2%

#2 0–1✓ 18.2%

#3 1–1 12.5%

#4 0–2 10.9%

#5 1–0 10.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

BATE Borisov0.7

Gomel1.2

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.3% · O3.5 PROB 23.4%

Form & verdict PPG

BATE BORISOV · PPG 0.83

GOMEL · PPG 1.29

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.83) vs Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

BATE Borisov (H) 23.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -3.8%

Draw 30.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -8.8%

Gomel (A) 46.2%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -14.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

BATE Borisov face Gomel in Belarus - Premier League on Thursday, July 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives BATE Borisov a 23% chance, the draw 30% and Gomel 46%, so Gomel are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for BATE Borisov and 1.2 for Gomel (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, BATE Borisov are averaging 0.83 points per game versus 1.29 for Gomel. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +28.7%. This match finished 0-1.

BATE Borisov vs Gomel Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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