Today / Belarus - Premier League / Baranovichi vs Slavia Mozyr

Baranovichi vs Slavia Mozyr Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Regular Season - 13 ·Friday, June 26, 2026, 15:00

Baranovichi

PPG 0.80 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Slavia Mozyr

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.4%0-114.7%0-28.7%0-33.4%0-4+1.3%1 1-011.2%1-113.3%1-27.8%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-05.1%2-16.0%2-23.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.5%3-11.8%3-21.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 33.3% — —

Draw 30.0% — —

Away win 36.7% — —

Over 2.5 47.4% — —

Over 3.5 27.7% — —

BTTS 48.1% — —

Home Over 1.5 32.5% — —

Away Over 1.5 36.5% — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 31%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -7.4%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob48.1%

D 30% / xG 0.9-1.2 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.3%

#2 0–0 12.4%

#3 0–1 14.7%

#4 1–0 11.2%

#5 0–2 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Baranovichi0.9

Slavia Mozyr1.2

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.4% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BARANOVICHI · PPG 0.80

SLAVIA MOZYR · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.60) vs Home POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Baranovichi (H) 33.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Slavia Mozyr (A) 36.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Baranovichi face Slavia Mozyr in Belarus - Premier League on Friday, June 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Baranovichi a 33% chance, the draw 30% and Slavia Mozyr 37%, so Slavia Mozyr are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Baranovichi and 1.2 for Slavia Mozyr (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Baranovichi are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 1.60 for Slavia Mozyr. This match finished 1-1.

Baranovichi vs Slavia Mozyr Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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