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Neman Grodno vs Arsenal D. Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 15:00

Neman Grodno

PPG 1.43 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Arsenal D.

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.8% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-110.2%0-25.0%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.3%1-113.1%1-26.5%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.5%2-18.4%2-24.1%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.6%3-13.6%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.5%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.4% 63.7% 1.57 -30.3%

Draw 27.3% 29.4% 3.40 -4.3%

Away win 28.3% 20.0% 5.00 +24.9%

Over 2.5 49.7% 49.3% 2.03 +0.9%

Over 3.5 28.8% 29.1% 3.44 -0.6%

BTTS 52.8% 51.3% 1.95 +3.0%

Home O1.5 42.8% 55.2% 1.81 -22.5%

Away O1.5 31.9% 20.0% 5.00 +59.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.8%

H 44% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 10.4%

#3 1–0 13.3%

#4 2–0 8.5%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Neman Grodno1.3

Arsenal D.1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

NEMAN GRODNO · PPG 1.43

ARSENAL D. · PPG 1.43

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.43), Away AVERAGE (1.43)

Win probability 1X2

Neman Grodno (H) 44.4%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -30.3%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -4.3%

Arsenal D. (A) 28.3%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +24.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Neman Grodno face Arsenal D. in Belarus - Premier League on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Neman Grodno a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Arsenal D. 28%, so Neman Grodno are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Neman Grodno and 1.0 for Arsenal D. (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Neman Grodno are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.43 for Arsenal D.. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +59.5%. This match finished 0-1.

Neman Grodno vs Arsenal D. Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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