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Slavia Mozyr vs ML Vitebsk Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Matchday 14 ·Wednesday, July 1, 2026, 17:30

Slavia Mozyr

PPG 0.86 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWDL

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

ML Vitebsk

PPG 2.71 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDW

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.8%0-116.7%0-212.9%0-36.6%0-4+3.6%1 1-07.4%1-111.4%1-28.8%1-34.5%1-4+2.5%2 2-02.5%2-13.9%2-23.0%2-31.5%2-4+0.8%3 3-00.6%3-10.9%3-20.7%3-30.3%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.1% 23.8% 4.20 -6.8%

Draw 24.4% 32.3% 3.10 -14.6%

Away win 54.5% 55.6% 1.80 -1.9%

Over 2.5 49.7% 47.4% 2.11 +4.9%

Over 3.5 28.7% 28.2% 3.54 +1.0%

BTTS 48.5% 51.3% 1.95 -5.4%

Home O1.5 33.7% 25.0% 4.00 +34.8%

Away O1.5 49.8% 49.8% 2.01 +0.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -100.0%

Bet Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob48.5%

A 55% / xG 0.7-1.5 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 16.7%

#2 1–1 11.4%

#3 0–2 12.9%

#4 0–0 10.8%

#5 1–2 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Slavia Mozyr0.7

ML Vitebsk1.5

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SLAVIA MOZYR · PPG 0.86

ML VITEBSK · PPG 2.71

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.71) vs Home POOR (0.86)

Win probability 1X2

Slavia Mozyr (H) 21.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -6.8%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -14.6%

ML Vitebsk (A) 54.5%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -1.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Slavia Mozyr face ML Vitebsk in Belarus - Premier League on Wednesday, July 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Slavia Mozyr a 21% chance, the draw 24% and ML Vitebsk 55%, so ML Vitebsk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Slavia Mozyr and 1.5 for ML Vitebsk (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Slavia Mozyr are averaging 0.86 points per game versus 2.71 for ML Vitebsk. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +34.8%. This match finished 2-4.

Slavia Mozyr vs ML Vitebsk Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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