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Dnepr Mogilev vs Neman Grodno Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Regular Season - 13 ·Sunday, June 28, 2026, 15:00

Dnepr Mogilev

PPG 0.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Neman Grodno

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.9%0-120.0%0-211.8%0-34.7%0-4+1.8%1 1-010.1%1-111.9%1-27.0%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-03.0%2-13.5%2-22.1%2-30.8%2-4+0.3%3 3-00.6%3-10.7%3-20.4%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 22.4% 4.60 +1.8%

Draw 31.0% 3.30 +2.3%

Away win 46.7% 1.67 -22.0%

Over 2.5 37.3% 1.97 -26.5%

Over 3.5 19.3% 3.30 -21.8%

BTTS 47.4% 1.91 -9.5%

Home Over 1.5 32.5% 4.15 +34.9%

Away Over 1.5 36.7% 1.86 -31.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 30%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -13.7%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob47.4%

A 47% / xG 0.6-1.2 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.9%

#2 0–1 20.0%

#3 1–1 11.9%

#4 0–2 11.8%

#5 1–0 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dnepr Mogilev0.6

Neman Grodno1.2

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.3%

Form & verdict PPG

DNEPR MOGILEV · PPG 0.60

NEMAN GRODNO · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

Dnepr Mogilev (H) 22.4%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +1.8%

Draw 31.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +2.3%

Neman Grodno (A) 46.7%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -22.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dnepr Mogilev face Neman Grodno in Belarus - Premier League on Sunday, June 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dnepr Mogilev a 22% chance, the draw 31% and Neman Grodno 47%, so Neman Grodno are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Dnepr Mogilev and 1.2 for Neman Grodno (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dnepr Mogilev are averaging 0.60 points per game versus 2.00 for Neman Grodno. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +34.9%.

Dnepr Mogilev vs Neman Grodno Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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