A-League

AUSTRALIA · 12 MATCHES TRACKED · 17 APR 2026 – 26 APR 2026

● LOW SAMPLE

FEWER THAN 10 SETTLED PICKS — NO VERDICT YET

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 12 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

58.3%

1X2

7/12

58.3%

O/U 2.5

7/12

41.7%

BTTS

5/12

50.0%

Exact score

6/12

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

66.7%

Hit rate

6/9

1.44

Avg odds

-4.7%

ROI

-0.4u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

OVER 2.5 · N=6 83.3% HIT · AVG 1.43 · +19.0% ROI

BTTS · N=2 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.43 · -28.0% ROI

HOME WIN · N=1 0.0% HIT · AVG 1.54 · -100.0% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

✓ Solid

Bets

Hit

-100.0%

ROI

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

100%

Hit

+39.3%

ROI

⚠ Low confidence

Bets

60%

Hit

-12.0%

ROI

Match log

12 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

April 2026 // 9 PICKS · 6 HIT · 3 MISS

26 APR Sydney FC vs Auckland — NO PICK 2–2 —26 APR Melbourne City vs Adelaide Utd Over 2.5 -7% 1–2 HIT 25 APR Newcastle Jets vs Central Coast Over 2.5 +1% 4–0 HIT 25 APR WS Wanderers vs Melbourne V. BTTS -21% 0–2 MISS 25 APR Perth Glory vs Brisbane Roar — NO PICK 2–1 —24 APR Macarthur FC vs Wellington Over 2.5 +3% 4–0 HIT 19 APR Auckland vs Central Coast Over 2.5 -8% 0–1 MISS 19 APR Adelaide Utd vs Macarthur FC Over 2.5 +0% 3–1 HIT 18 APR Wellington vs WS Wanderers BTTS -12% 2–1 HIT 18 APR Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne City — NO PICK 2–3 —18 APR Sydney FC vs Perth Glory Home -8% 0–0 MISS 17 APR Melbourne V. vs Newcastle Jets Over 2.5 -9% 2–2 HIT