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Sydney FC vs Auckland Prediction— Australia - A-League

Regular Season - 26 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 05:00

Sydney FC

PPG 1.50 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Auckland

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.3%0-113.0%0-26.9%0-32.4%0-4+0.8%1 1-012.8%1-113.5%1-27.1%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-06.6%2-17.0%2-23.7%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.3%3-12.4%3-21.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.8%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.0% 38.5% 2.60 -3.8%

Draw 33.0% 27.8% 3.60 +18.8%

Away win 29.9% 41.0% 2.44 -27.0%

Over 2.5 44.4% 60.6% 1.65 -26.7%

Over 3.5 16.1% 37.7% 2.65 -57.3%

BTTS 49.6% 64.5% 1.55 -23.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -4.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.6%

D 33% / xG 1.0-1.1 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 12.3%

#3 0–1 13.0%

#4 1–0 12.8%

#5 1–2 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sydney FC1.0

Auckland1.1

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.4% · O3.5 PROB 16.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SYDNEY FC · PPG 1.50

AUCKLAND · PPG 1.83

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.50) vs Away GOOD (1.83)

Win probability 1X2

Sydney FC (H) 37.0%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -3.8%

Draw 33.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +18.8%

Auckland (A) 29.9%

ODDS 2.44 · IMPLIED 41.0% EV -27.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sydney FC face Auckland in Australia - A-League on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sydney FC a 37% chance, the draw 33% and Auckland 30%, so Sydney FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Sydney FC and 1.1 for Auckland (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sydney FC are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.83 for Auckland. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +18.8%. This match finished 2-2.

Sydney FC vs Auckland Prediction— Australia - A-League

Match Preview & Prediction

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