Today / Australia - A-League / Wellington vs WS Wanderers

Wellington vs WS Wanderers Prediction— Australia - A-League

Regular Season - 25 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 05:00

Wellington

PPG 1.17 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

WS Wanderers

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-15.4%0-23.5%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-07.9%1-110.2%1-26.6%1-32.8%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.4%2-19.6%2-26.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.6%3-16.0%3-23.9%3-31.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-14.3%4+-22.8%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.2% 43.9% 2.28 +16.7%

Draw 22.5% 26.3% 3.80 -14.5%

Away win 26.3% 36.8% 2.72 -28.5%

Over 2.5 61.3% 66.7% 1.50 -8.1%

Over 3.5 39.0% 44.4% 2.25 -12.3%

BTTS 61.4% 69.4% 1.44 -11.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -4.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.4%

H 51% / xG 1.9-1.3 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–1✓ 9.6%

#3 1–0 7.9%

#4 2–0 7.4%

#5 1–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wellington1.9

WS Wanderers1.3

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.3% · O3.5 PROB 39.0%

Form & verdict PPG

WELLINGTON · PPG 1.17

WS WANDERERS · PPG 0.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.17) > Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Wellington (H) 51.2%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV +16.7%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -14.5%

WS Wanderers (A) 26.3%

ODDS 2.72 · IMPLIED 36.8% EV -28.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wellington face WS Wanderers in Australia - A-League on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wellington a 51% chance, the draw 23% and WS Wanderers 26%, so Wellington are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Wellington and 1.3 for WS Wanderers (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wellington are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.67 for WS Wanderers. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +16.7%. This match finished 2-1.

Wellington vs WS Wanderers Prediction— Australia - A-League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - A-League Predictions