Wellington vs WS Wanderers Prediction— Australia - A-League

Australia - A-League Regular Season - 25 Sky Stadium· Wellington Saturday, April 18, 2026 05:00

Wellington PPG 1.17

2-1 HIT CS2

WS Wanderers PPG 0.67

Home· +16.7% ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Wellington face WS Wanderers in Australia - A-League on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wellington a 51% chance, the draw 23% and WS Wanderers 26%, so Wellington are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Wellington and 1.3 for WS Wanderers (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wellington are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.67 for WS Wanderers. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +16.7%. This match finished 2-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 51.2%

Odds: 2.28 EV: +16.7%

Draw 22.5%

Odds: 3.80 EV: -14.5%

Away 26.3%

Odds: 2.72 EV: -28.5%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 61.3% Odds: 1.50 -8.1%

Over 3.5 39.0% Odds: 2.25 -12.3%

BTTS 61.4% Odds: 1.44 -11.6%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✔

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 2-0 ✘

5th 1-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Wellington

1.88

WS Wanderers

1.29

Model SuggestionBTTS -11.6% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-11.6%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5/Under 58%

BTTS/No 42%

Score Hit 50%

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.17) > Away POOR (0.67)