Adelaide Utd vs Macarthur FC Prediction— Australia - A-League

Australia - A-League Regular Season - 25 Coopers Stadium· Adelaide Sunday, April 19, 2026 05:30

Adelaide Utd PPG 1.75

3-1 HIT CS4

Macarthur FC PPG 1.25

Home· +16.4% ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Adelaide Utd face Macarthur FC in Australia - A-League on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Adelaide Utd a 59% chance, the draw 20% and Macarthur FC 21%, so Adelaide Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Adelaide Utd and 1.3 for Macarthur FC (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Adelaide Utd are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.25 for Macarthur FC. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +16.4%. This match finished 3-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 59.1%

Odds: 1.97 EV: +16.4%

Draw 19.6%

Odds: 4.00 EV: -21.6%

Away 21.2%

Odds: 3.20 EV: -32.2%

Model lean: Over 2.5

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 69.6% Odds: 1.44 +0.2%

Over 3.5 48.3% Odds: 2.10 +1.4%

BTTS 65.6% Odds: 1.42 -6.9%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-1 ✘

2nd 1-1 ✘

3rd 2-0 ✘

4th 3-1 ✔

5th 1-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Adelaide Utd

2.28

Macarthur FC

1.31

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 +0.2% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 
Raw EV leader: Home(+16.4%)

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.75) > Away AVERAGE (1.25)