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Adelaide Utd vs Macarthur FC Prediction— Australia - A-League

Regular Season - 25 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 05:30

Adelaide Utd

PPG 1.75 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Macarthur FC

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 69.6% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-13.6%0-22.4%0-31.0%0-4+0.5%1 1-06.3%1-18.2%1-25.4%1-32.4%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.2%2-19.4%2-26.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-05.4%3-17.1%3-24.7%3-32.0%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-05.3%4+-16.9%4+-24.6%4+-32.0%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.1% 50.8% 1.97 +16.4%

Draw 19.6% 25.0% 4.00 -21.6%

Away win 21.2% 31.3% 3.20 -32.2%

Over 2.5 69.6% 69.4% 1.44 +0.2%

Over 3.5 48.3% 47.6% 2.10 +1.4%

BTTS 65.6% 70.4% 1.42 -6.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -4.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob65.6%

H 59% / xG 2.3-1.3 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.4%

#2 1–1 8.2%

#3 2–0 7.2%

#4 3–1✓ 7.1%

#5 1–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Adelaide Utd2.3

Macarthur FC1.3

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.6% · O3.5 PROB 48.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ADELAIDE UTD · PPG 1.75

MACARTHUR FC · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.75) > Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Adelaide Utd (H) 59.1%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV +16.4%

Draw 19.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -21.6%

Macarthur FC (A) 21.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -32.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Adelaide Utd face Macarthur FC in Australia - A-League on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Adelaide Utd a 59% chance, the draw 20% and Macarthur FC 21%, so Adelaide Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Adelaide Utd and 1.3 for Macarthur FC (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Adelaide Utd are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.25 for Macarthur FC. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +16.4%. This match finished 3-1.

Adelaide Utd vs Macarthur FC Prediction— Australia - A-League

Match Preview & Prediction

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