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Sydney FC vs Perth Glory Prediction— Australia - A-League

Regular Season - 25 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 09:35

Sydney FC

PPG 1.55 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Perth Glory

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 64.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-16.4%0-22.5%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.7%1-111.0%1-24.4%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.9%2-19.5%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.9%3-15.5%3-22.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-13.5%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.6% 64.9% 1.54 -8.2%

Draw 23.4% 23.8% 4.20 -1.7%

Away win 17.0% 18.5% 5.40 -8.2%

Over 2.5 46.5% 64.5% 1.55 -27.9%

Over 3.5 25.0% 42.6% 2.35 -41.3%

BTTS 45.4% 61.7% 1.62 -26.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -4.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob45.4%

H 60% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 46% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.7%

#2 2–0 11.9%

#3 1–1 11.0%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0✓ 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sydney FC1.7

Perth Glory0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SYDNEY FC · PPG 1.55

PERTH GLORY · PPG 1.08

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.55) > Away AVERAGE (1.08)

Win probability 1X2

Sydney FC (H) 59.6%

ODDS 1.54 · IMPLIED 64.9% EV -8.2%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -1.7%

Perth Glory (A) 17.0%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV -8.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sydney FC face Perth Glory in Australia - A-League on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sydney FC a 60% chance, the draw 23% and Perth Glory 17%, so Sydney FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Sydney FC and 0.8 for Perth Glory (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sydney FC are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 1.08 for Perth Glory. This match finished 0-0.

Sydney FC vs Perth Glory Prediction— Australia - A-League

Match Preview & Prediction

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