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Melbourne City vs Adelaide Utd Prediction— Australia - A-League

Regular Season - 26 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 07:30

Melbourne City

PPG 1.67 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Adelaide Utd

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-17.8%0-25.7%0-32.8%0-4+1.4%1 1-07.9%1-111.5%1-28.3%1-34.0%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.8%2-18.4%2-26.1%2-33.0%2-4+1.5%3 3-02.8%3-14.1%3-23.0%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.1%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.6% 49.5% 2.02 -24.1%

Draw 29.6% 26.3% 3.80 +12.5%

Away win 32.9% 31.3% 3.20 +5.3%

Over 2.5 59.0% 63.7% 1.57 -7.4%

Over 3.5 33.5% 41.7% 2.40 -19.6%

BTTS 58.5% 66.7% 1.50 -12.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -4.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob58.5%

D 30% / xG 1.5-1.5 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2✓ 8.3%

#4 0–0 5.4%

#5 1–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Melbourne City1.5

Adelaide Utd1.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 33.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MELBOURNE CITY · PPG 1.67

ADELAIDE UTD · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Melbourne City (H) 37.6%

ODDS 2.02 · IMPLIED 49.5% EV -24.1%

Draw 29.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +12.5%

Adelaide Utd (A) 32.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +5.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Melbourne City face Adelaide Utd in Australia - A-League on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Melbourne City a 38% chance, the draw 30% and Adelaide Utd 33%, so Melbourne City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Melbourne City and 1.5 for Adelaide Utd (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Melbourne City are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.33 for Adelaide Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +12.5%. This match finished 1-2.

Melbourne City vs Adelaide Utd Prediction— Australia - A-League

Match Preview & Prediction

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