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Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne City Prediction— Australia - A-League

Regular Season - 25 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 07:00

Brisbane Roar

PPG 1.08 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

Melbourne City

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.7%0-113.7%0-26.9%0-32.3%0-4+0.7%1 1-013.5%1-113.5%1-26.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-06.7%2-16.7%2-23.3%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.2%3-12.2%3-21.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.2% 29.9% 3.35 +14.6%

Draw 31.0% 28.6% 3.50 +8.5%

Away win 34.9% 48.5% 2.06 -28.1%

Over 2.5 32.0% 54.6% 1.83 -41.4%

Over 3.5 14.1% 32.3% 3.10 -56.3%

BTTS 39.7% 58.8% 1.70 -32.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -4.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob39.7%

D 31% / xG 1.0-1.0 / U2.5 32% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 13.7%

#2 0–0 13.7%

#3 1–1 13.5%

#4 1–0 13.5%

#5 0–2 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brisbane Roar1.0

Melbourne City1.0

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 32.0% · O3.5 PROB 14.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BRISBANE ROAR · PPG 1.08

MELBOURNE CITY · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.08), Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Brisbane Roar (H) 34.2%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +14.6%

Draw 31.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +8.5%

Melbourne City (A) 34.9%

ODDS 2.06 · IMPLIED 48.5% EV -28.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brisbane Roar face Melbourne City in Australia - A-League on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brisbane Roar a 34% chance, the draw 31% and Melbourne City 35%, so Melbourne City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Brisbane Roar and 1.0 for Melbourne City (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 32% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brisbane Roar are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 1.25 for Melbourne City. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +14.6%. This match finished 2-3.

Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne City Prediction— Australia - A-League

Match Preview & Prediction

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