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Macarthur FC vs Wellington Prediction— Australia - A-League

Regular Season - 26 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 09:35

Macarthur FC

PPG 1.33 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Wellington

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.5% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-14.8%0-24.0%0-32.2%0-4+1.3%1 1-05.5%1-19.1%1-27.5%1-34.2%1-4+2.5%2 2-05.1%2-18.5%2-27.1%2-33.9%2-4+2.3%3 3-03.2%3-15.3%3-24.4%3-32.4%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-13.8%4+-23.2%4+-31.8%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.5% 49.0% 2.04 -11.3%

Draw 22.0% 25.3% 3.95 -13.1%

Away win 34.5% 32.3% 3.10 +7.0%

Over 2.5 68.5% 66.7% 1.50 +2.8%

Over 3.5 47.0% 44.4% 2.25 +5.8%

BTTS 68.5% 69.0% 1.45 -0.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -4.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob68.5%

H 44% / xG 1.9-1.7 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 1–0 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Macarthur FC1.9

Wellington1.7

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.5% · O3.5 PROB 47.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MACARTHUR FC · PPG 1.33

WELLINGTON · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Macarthur FC (H) 43.5%

ODDS 2.04 · IMPLIED 49.0% EV -11.3%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -13.1%

Wellington (A) 34.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +7.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Macarthur FC face Wellington in Australia - A-League on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Macarthur FC a 44% chance, the draw 22% and Wellington 35%, so Macarthur FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Macarthur FC and 1.7 for Wellington (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Macarthur FC are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.33 for Wellington. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +7.0%. This match finished 4-0.

Macarthur FC vs Wellington Prediction— Australia - A-League

Match Preview & Prediction

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