Macarthur FC vs Wellington Prediction— Australia - A-League

Australia - A-League Regular Season - 26 Campbelltown Stadium· Sydney Friday, April 24, 2026 09:35

Macarthur FC PPG 1.33

4-0 MISS

Wellington PPG 1.33

Away· +7.0% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Macarthur FC face Wellington in Australia - A-League on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Macarthur FC a 44% chance, the draw 22% and Wellington 35%, so Macarthur FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Macarthur FC and 1.7 for Wellington (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Macarthur FC are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.33 for Wellington. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +7.0%. This match finished 4-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 43.5%

Odds: 2.04 EV: -11.3%

Draw 22.0%

Odds: 3.95 EV: -13.1%

Away 34.5%

Odds: 3.10 EV: +7.0%

Model lean: Over 2.5

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 68.5% Odds: 1.50 +2.8%

Over 3.5 47.0% Odds: 2.25 +5.8%

BTTS 68.5% Odds: 1.45 -0.7%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-2 ✘

4th 2-2 ✘

5th 1-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Macarthur FC

1.88

Wellington

1.66

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 +2.8% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 
Raw EV leader: Away(+7.0%)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away AVERAGE (1.33)