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Auckland vs Central Coast Prediction— Australia - A-League

Regular Season - 25 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 03:00

Auckland

PPG 1.58 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Central Coast

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.8% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-14.3%0-22.5%0-31.0%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.0%1-19.2%1-25.3%1-32.1%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.5%2-19.8%2-25.7%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.0%3-16.9%3-24.0%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-16.0%4+-23.5%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.5% 74.1% 1.35 -19.7%

Draw 20.5% 19.6% 5.10 +4.5%

Away win 20.0% 13.5% 7.40 +48.0%

Over 2.5 63.8% 69.4% 1.44 -8.1%

Over 3.5 41.6% 47.6% 2.10 -12.6%

BTTS 60.4% 60.6% 1.65 -0.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -4.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob60.4%

H 60% / xG 2.1-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.8%

#2 1–1 9.2%

#3 2–0 8.5%

#4 1–0 8.0%

#5 3–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Auckland2.1

Central Coast1.2

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.8% · O3.5 PROB 41.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AUCKLAND · PPG 1.58

CENTRAL COAST · PPG 1.18

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.58) > Away AVERAGE (1.18)

Win probability 1X2

Auckland (H) 59.5%

ODDS 1.35 · IMPLIED 74.1% EV -19.7%

Draw 20.5%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +4.5%

Central Coast (A) 20.0%

ODDS 7.40 · IMPLIED 13.5% EV +48.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Auckland face Central Coast in Australia - A-League on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Auckland a 60% chance, the draw 21% and Central Coast 20%, so Auckland are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Auckland and 1.2 for Central Coast (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Auckland are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 1.18 for Central Coast. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +48.0%. This match finished 0-1.

Auckland vs Central Coast Prediction— Australia - A-League

Match Preview & Prediction

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