Melbourne V. vs Newcastle Jets Prediction— Australia - A-League

Match Preview & Prediction

Melbourne V. face Newcastle Jets in Australia - A-League on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Melbourne V. a 38% chance, the draw 22% and Newcastle Jets 40%, so Newcastle Jets are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Melbourne V. and 1.8 for Newcastle Jets (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Melbourne V. are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 2.08 for Newcastle Jets. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +32.0%. This match finished 2-2.