Today / Australia - A-League / Melbourne V. vs Newcastle Jets

Melbourne V. vs Newcastle Jets Prediction— Australia - A-League

Regular Season - 25 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 09:35

Melbourne V.

PPG 1.75 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Newcastle Jets

PPG 2.08 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 69.7% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-15.0%0-24.5%0-32.8%0-4+1.9%1 1-04.9%1-18.9%1-28.1%1-34.9%1-4+3.4%2 2-04.3%2-17.9%2-27.2%2-34.4%2-4+3.0%3 3-02.6%3-14.7%3-24.2%3-32.6%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-13.1%4+-22.8%4+-31.7%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.1% 52.6% 1.90 -27.6%

Draw 21.9% 24.4% 4.10 -10.2%

Away win 40.0% 30.3% 3.30 +32.0%

Over 2.5 69.7% 76.9% 1.30 -9.4%

Over 3.5 48.5% 55.6% 1.80 -12.7%

BTTS 69.7% 76.9% 1.30 -9.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -4.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob69.7%

A 40% / xG 1.8-1.8 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 1–2 8.1%

#3 2–1 7.9%

#4 2–2✓ 7.2%

#5 0–1 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Melbourne V.1.8

Newcastle Jets1.8

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.7% · O3.5 PROB 48.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MELBOURNE V. · PPG 1.75

NEWCASTLE JETS · PPG 2.08

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.75) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.08)

Win probability 1X2

Melbourne V. (H) 38.1%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -27.6%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -10.2%

Newcastle Jets (A) 40.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +32.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Melbourne V. face Newcastle Jets in Australia - A-League on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Melbourne V. a 38% chance, the draw 22% and Newcastle Jets 40%, so Newcastle Jets are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Melbourne V. and 1.8 for Newcastle Jets (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Melbourne V. are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 2.08 for Newcastle Jets. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +32.0%. This match finished 2-2.

Melbourne V. vs Newcastle Jets Prediction— Australia - A-League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - A-League Predictions