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Perth Glory vs Brisbane Roar Prediction— Australia - A-League

Regular Season - 26 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 11:45

Perth Glory

PPG 1.17 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Brisbane Roar

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.3%0-110.0%0-24.8%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.4%1-113.0%1-26.3%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.7%2-18.5%2-24.1%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.8%3-13.7%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.6%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.2% 43.5% 2.30 +1.7%

Draw 28.1% 27.8% 3.60 +1.2%

Away win 27.7% 35.7% 2.80 -22.4%

Over 2.5 39.6% 60.6% 1.65 -34.7%

Over 3.5 19.5% 37.7% 2.65 -48.3%

BTTS 45.2% 64.5% 1.55 -29.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -4.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob45.2%

H 44% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.4%

#2 1–1 13.0%

#3 0–0 10.3%

#4 0–1 10.0%

#5 2–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Perth Glory1.3

Brisbane Roar1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.6% · O3.5 PROB 19.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PERTH GLORY · PPG 1.17

BRISBANE ROAR · PPG 1.08

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.17), Away AVERAGE (1.08)

Win probability 1X2

Perth Glory (H) 44.2%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +1.7%

Draw 28.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +1.2%

Brisbane Roar (A) 27.7%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -22.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Perth Glory face Brisbane Roar in Australia - A-League on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Perth Glory a 44% chance, the draw 28% and Brisbane Roar 28%, so Perth Glory are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Perth Glory and 1.0 for Brisbane Roar (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Perth Glory are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.08 for Brisbane Roar. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +1.7%. This match finished 2-1.

Perth Glory vs Brisbane Roar Prediction— Australia - A-League

Match Preview & Prediction

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