Perth Glory vs Brisbane Roar Prediction— Australia - A-League

Australia - A-League Regular Season - 26 HBF Park· Perth Saturday, April 25, 2026 11:45

Perth Glory PPG 1.17

2-1 MISS

Brisbane Roar PPG 1.08

Home· +1.7% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Perth Glory face Brisbane Roar in Australia - A-League on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Perth Glory a 44% chance, the draw 28% and Brisbane Roar 28%, so Perth Glory are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Perth Glory and 1.0 for Brisbane Roar (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Perth Glory are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.08 for Brisbane Roar. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +1.7%. This match finished 2-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 44.2%

Odds: 2.30 EV: +1.7%

Draw 28.1%

Odds: 3.60 EV: +1.2%

Away 27.7%

Odds: 2.80 EV: -22.4%

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 39.6% Odds: 1.65 -34.7%

Over 3.5 19.5% Odds: 2.65 -48.3%

BTTS 45.2% Odds: 1.55 -29.9%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0 ✘

2nd 1-1 ✘

3rd 0-0 ✘

4th 0-1 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Perth Glory

1.30

Brisbane Roar

0.97

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.17), Away AVERAGE (1.08)