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Newcastle Jets vs Central Coast Prediction— Australia - A-League

Regular Season - 26 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 07:00

Newcastle Jets

PPG 1.58 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Central Coast

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 76.3% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-12.6%0-21.8%0-30.9%0-4+0.4%1 1-04.7%1-16.7%1-24.7%1-32.2%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.1%2-18.7%2-26.1%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-05.3%3-17.5%3-25.3%3-32.5%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-06.3%4+-19.0%4+-26.4%4+-33.0%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.7% 65.4% 1.53 -4.1%

Draw 17.8% 21.1% 4.75 -15.4%

Away win 19.5% 20.4% 4.90 -4.5%

Over 2.5 76.3% 75.2% 1.33 +1.5%

Over 3.5 56.7% 55.6% 1.80 +2.1%

BTTS 70.0% 71.4% 1.40 -2.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -4.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 77%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob70.0%

H 63% / xG 2.6-1.4 / O2.5 76% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.7%

#2 3–1 7.5%

#3 1–1 6.7%

#4 2–2 6.1%

#5 2–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Newcastle Jets2.6

Central Coast1.4

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 76.3% · O3.5 PROB 56.7%

Form & verdict PPG

NEWCASTLE JETS · PPG 1.58

CENTRAL COAST · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.58), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Newcastle Jets (H) 62.7%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -4.1%

Draw 17.8%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -15.4%

Central Coast (A) 19.5%

ODDS 4.90 · IMPLIED 20.4% EV -4.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Newcastle Jets face Central Coast in Australia - A-League on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Newcastle Jets a 63% chance, the draw 18% and Central Coast 20%, so Newcastle Jets are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Newcastle Jets and 1.4 for Central Coast (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Newcastle Jets are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 1.33 for Central Coast. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +2.1%. This match finished 4-0.

Newcastle Jets vs Central Coast Prediction— Australia - A-League

Match Preview & Prediction

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