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WS Wanderers vs Melbourne V. Prediction— Australia - A-League

Regular Season - 26 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 09:35

WS Wanderers

PPG 1.08 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Melbourne V.

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.7% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-19.9%0-28.2%0-34.5%0-4+2.7%1 1-06.9%1-111.5%1-29.5%1-35.3%1-4+3.2%2 2-04.0%2-16.7%2-25.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.9%3 3-01.6%3-12.6%3-22.1%3-31.2%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.0%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.7% 31.7% 3.15 -15.9%

Draw 24.3% 26.0% 3.85 -6.5%

Away win 49.0% 49.0% 2.04 -0.0%

Over 2.5 53.6% 67.6% 1.48 -20.7%

Over 3.5 31.4% 45.5% 2.20 -30.9%

BTTS 55.7% 70.4% 1.42 -20.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -4.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob55.7%

A 49% / xG 1.2-1.7 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 0–1 9.9%

#3 1–2 9.5%

#4 0–2✓ 8.2%

#5 1–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

WS Wanderers1.2

Melbourne V.1.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.6% · O3.5 PROB 31.4%

Form & verdict PPG

WS WANDERERS · PPG 1.08

MELBOURNE V. · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.08), Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

WS Wanderers (H) 26.7%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -15.9%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -6.5%

Melbourne V. (A) 49.0%

ODDS 2.04 · IMPLIED 49.0% EV -0.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

WS Wanderers face Melbourne V. in Australia - A-League on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives WS Wanderers a 27% chance, the draw 24% and Melbourne V. 49%, so Melbourne V. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for WS Wanderers and 1.7 for Melbourne V. (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, WS Wanderers are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 1.25 for Melbourne V.. This match finished 0-2.

WS Wanderers vs Melbourne V. Prediction— Australia - A-League

Match Preview & Prediction

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