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Sligo Rovers vs Drogheda United Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Regular Season - 25 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 18:45

Sligo Rovers

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Drogheda United

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-19.8%0-26.0%0-32.4%0-4+1.0%1 1-010.5%1-112.8%1-27.8%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.8%2-18.3%2-25.0%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.0%3-13.6%3-22.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.3% 34.7% 2.88 +16.1%

Draw 26.5% 29.9% 3.35 -6.7%

Away win 33.2% 42.6% 2.35 -22.0%

Over 2.5 52.0% 54.1% 1.85 -3.8%

Over 3.5 30.4% 30.8% 3.25 -1.2%

BTTS 55.4% 59.9% 1.67 -7.5%

Home O1.5 38.5% 39.2% 2.55 -1.8%

Away O1.5 36.9% 45.5% 2.20 -18.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 6.0%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.4%

H 40% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.1%

#3 1–0 10.5%

#4 2–1 8.3%

#5 0–1 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sligo Rovers1.3

Drogheda United1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.0% · O3.5 PROB 30.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SLIGO ROVERS · PPG 1.00

DROGHEDA UNITED · PPG 0.92

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.08 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sligo Rovers (H) 40.3%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +16.1%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -6.7%

Drogheda United (A) 33.2%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -22.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sligo Rovers face Drogheda United in Ireland - Premier Division on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sligo Rovers a 40% chance, the draw 27% and Drogheda United 33%, so Sligo Rovers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Sligo Rovers and 1.2 for Drogheda United (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sligo Rovers are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.92 for Drogheda United. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +15.1%.

Sligo Rovers vs Drogheda United Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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