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Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Regular Season - 23 ·Friday, July 3, 2026, 18:45

Sligo Rovers

PPG 1.09 · HOME

UPCOMING

Shamrock Rovers

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 57.3% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.1%0-116.7%0-212.6%0-36.4%0-4+3.4%1 1-07.6%1-111.5%1-28.7%1-34.4%1-4+2.3%2 2-02.6%2-14.0%2-23.0%2-31.5%2-4+0.8%3 3-00.6%3-10.9%3-20.7%3-30.3%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 18.1% 16.9% 5.90 +4.1%

Draw 24.6% 25.3% 3.95 -1.7%

Away win 57.3% 64.5% 1.55 -11.2%

Over 2.5 49.7% 55.6% 1.80 -10.5%

Over 3.5 28.8% 33.3% 3.00 -8.2%

BTTS 48.5% 55.6% 1.80 -12.7%

Home O1.5 33.7% 25.3% 3.95 +33.1%

Away O1.5 49.8% 60.6% 1.65 -17.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 22.3%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob48.5%

A 57% / xG 0.7-1.5 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 16.7%

#2 1–1 11.5%

#3 0–0 11.1%

#4 0–2 12.6%

#5 1–2 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sligo Rovers0.7

Shamrock Rovers1.5

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SLIGO ROVERS · PPG 1.09

SHAMROCK ROVERS · PPG 1.50

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.09) vs Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Sligo Rovers (H) 18.1%

ODDS 5.90 · IMPLIED 16.9% EV +4.1%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -1.7%

Shamrock Rovers (A) 57.3%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -11.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sligo Rovers face Shamrock Rovers in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, July 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sligo Rovers a 18% chance, the draw 25% and Shamrock Rovers 57%, so Shamrock Rovers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Sligo Rovers and 1.5 for Shamrock Rovers (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sligo Rovers are averaging 1.09 points per game versus 1.50 for Shamrock Rovers. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +33.1%.

Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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