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Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Matchday 23 ·Friday, July 3, 2026, 18:45

Sligo Rovers

PPG 1.09 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLDL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Shamrock Rovers

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWD

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 57.3% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.1%0-116.7%0-212.6%0-36.4%0-4+3.4%1 1-07.6%1-111.5%1-28.7%1-34.4%1-4+2.3%2 2-02.6%2-14.0%2-23.0%2-31.5%2-4+0.8%3 3-00.6%3-10.9%3-20.7%3-30.3%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 18.1% 16.9% 5.90 +4.1%

Draw 24.6% 25.3% 3.95 -1.7%

Away win 57.3% 64.5% 1.55 -11.2%

Over 2.5 49.7% 55.6% 1.80 -10.5%

Over 3.5 28.8% 33.3% 3.00 -8.2%

BTTS 48.5% 55.6% 1.80 -12.7%

Home O1.5 33.7% 25.3% 3.95 +33.1%

Away O1.5 49.8% 60.6% 1.65 -17.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 87 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob48.5%

A 57% / xG 0.7-1.5 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 16.7%

#2 1–1 11.5%

#3 0–0 11.1%

#4 0–2 12.6%

#5 1–2✓ 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sligo Rovers0.7

Shamrock Rovers1.5

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SLIGO ROVERS · PPG 1.09

SHAMROCK ROVERS · PPG 1.50

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.09) vs Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Sligo Rovers (H) 18.1%

ODDS 5.90 · IMPLIED 16.9% EV +4.1%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -1.7%

Shamrock Rovers (A) 57.3%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -11.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sligo Rovers face Shamrock Rovers in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, July 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sligo Rovers a 18% chance, the draw 25% and Shamrock Rovers 57%, so Shamrock Rovers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Sligo Rovers and 1.5 for Shamrock Rovers (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sligo Rovers are averaging 1.09 points per game versus 1.50 for Shamrock Rovers. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +33.1%. This match finished 1-2.

Sligo Rovers vs Shamrock Rovers Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - Premier Division Predictions