Today / Ireland - Premier Division / St. Patricks vs Galway Utd

St. Patricks vs Galway Utd Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Regular Season - 23 ·Friday, July 3, 2026, 18:45

St. Patricks

PPG 2.27 · HOME

UPCOMING

Galway Utd

PPG 0.91 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.2% vs bookmaker-implied 70.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-16.0%0-22.4%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.4%1-110.7%1-24.3%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.0%2-19.6%2-23.9%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.2%3-15.7%3-22.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-13.9%4+-21.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.2% 70.9% 1.41 -20.8%

Draw 24.2% 21.5% 4.65 +7.5%

Away win 19.6% 14.3% 7.00 +22.3%

Over 2.5 50.0% 61.7% 1.62 -19.0%

Over 3.5 29.1% 39.2% 2.55 -15.5%

BTTS 52.8% 56.5% 1.77 -6.5%

Home O1.5 53.6% 69.0% 1.45 -22.3%

Away O1.5 22.5% 25.0% 4.00 -6.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 22.3%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.8%

H 56% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–0 12.0%

#3 1–0 13.4%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St. Patricks1.8

Galway Utd0.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 29.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ST. PATRICKS · PPG 2.27

GALWAY UTD · PPG 0.91

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.27) vs P(Home)=56.2%

Win probability 1X2

St. Patricks (H) 56.2%

ODDS 1.41 · IMPLIED 70.9% EV -20.8%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV +7.5%

Galway Utd (A) 19.6%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +22.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

St. Patricks face Galway Utd in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, July 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St. Patricks a 56% chance, the draw 24% and Galway Utd 20%, so St. Patricks are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for St. Patricks and 0.8 for Galway Utd (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St. Patricks are averaging 2.27 points per game versus 0.91 for Galway Utd. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +22.3%.

St. Patricks vs Galway Utd Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - Premier Division Predictions