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St. Patricks vs Galway Utd Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Matchday 23 ·Friday, July 3, 2026, 18:45

St. Patricks

PPG 2.27 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWWL

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Galway Utd

PPG 0.91 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDWD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.2% vs bookmaker-implied 70.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-16.0%0-22.4%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.4%1-110.7%1-24.3%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.0%2-19.6%2-23.9%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.2%3-15.7%3-22.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-13.9%4+-21.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.2% 70.9% 1.41 -20.8%

Draw 24.2% 21.5% 4.65 +7.5%

Away win 19.6% 14.3% 7.00 +22.3%

Over 2.5 50.0% 61.7% 1.62 -19.0%

Over 3.5 29.1% 39.2% 2.55 -15.5%

BTTS 52.8% 56.5% 1.77 -6.5%

Home O1.5 53.6% 69.0% 1.45 -22.3%

Away O1.5 22.5% 25.0% 4.00 -6.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 87 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.8%

H 56% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–0 12.0%

#3 1–0 13.4%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St. Patricks1.8

Galway Utd0.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 29.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ST. PATRICKS · PPG 2.27

GALWAY UTD · PPG 0.91

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.27) vs P(Home)=56.2%

Win probability 1X2

St. Patricks (H) 56.2%

ODDS 1.41 · IMPLIED 70.9% EV -20.8%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV +7.5%

Galway Utd (A) 19.6%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +22.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

St. Patricks face Galway Utd in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, July 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St. Patricks a 56% chance, the draw 24% and Galway Utd 20%, so St. Patricks are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for St. Patricks and 0.8 for Galway Utd (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St. Patricks are averaging 2.27 points per game versus 0.91 for Galway Utd. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +22.3%. This match finished 3-0.

St. Patricks vs Galway Utd Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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