Today / Ireland - Premier Division / Drogheda Utd vs Bohemians

Drogheda Utd vs Bohemians Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Matchday 23 ·Friday, July 3, 2026, 18:45

Drogheda Utd

PPG 1.27 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDLL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Bohemians

PPG 1.92 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 54.1% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-111.3%0-29.2%0-35.0%0-4+2.9%1 1-07.2%1-111.8%1-29.6%1-35.2%1-4+3.0%2 2-03.7%2-16.1%2-25.0%2-32.7%2-4+1.6%3 3-01.3%3-12.1%3-21.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.7%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.7% 21.3% 4.70 +4.0%

Draw 25.7% 26.7% 3.75 -2.2%

Away win 51.6% 58.8% 1.70 -12.3%

Over 2.5 54.1% 55.6% 1.80 -2.6%

Over 3.5 33.2% 33.3% 3.00 -0.4%

BTTS 53.0% 57.8% 1.73 -8.3%

Home O1.5 35.2% 29.9% 3.35 +17.9%

Away O1.5 49.8% 57.8% 1.73 -13.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 87 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob53.0%

A 52% / xG 1.0-1.6 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 0–1 11.3%

#3 1–2 9.6%

#4 0–2✓ 9.2%

#5 0–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Drogheda Utd1.0

Bohemians1.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.2%

Form & verdict PPG

DROGHEDA UTD · PPG 1.27

BOHEMIANS · PPG 1.92

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.92) vs Home AVERAGE (1.27)

Win probability 1X2

Drogheda Utd (H) 22.7%

ODDS 4.70 · IMPLIED 21.3% EV +4.0%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -2.2%

Bohemians (A) 51.6%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -12.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Drogheda Utd face Bohemians in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, July 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Drogheda Utd a 23% chance, the draw 26% and Bohemians 52%, so Bohemians are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Drogheda Utd and 1.6 for Bohemians (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Drogheda Utd are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 1.92 for Bohemians. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +17.9%. This match finished 0-2.

Drogheda Utd vs Bohemians Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - Premier Division Predictions