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Drogheda Utd vs Bohemians Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Regular Season - 23 ·Friday, July 3, 2026, 18:45

Drogheda Utd

PPG 1.27 · HOME

UPCOMING

Bohemians

PPG 1.92 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 54.1% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-111.3%0-29.2%0-35.0%0-4+2.9%1 1-07.2%1-111.8%1-29.6%1-35.2%1-4+3.0%2 2-03.7%2-16.1%2-25.0%2-32.7%2-4+1.6%3 3-01.3%3-12.1%3-21.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.7%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.7% 21.3% 4.70 +4.0%

Draw 25.7% 26.7% 3.75 -2.2%

Away win 51.6% 58.8% 1.70 -12.3%

Over 2.5 54.1% 55.6% 1.80 -2.6%

Over 3.5 33.2% 33.3% 3.00 -0.4%

BTTS 53.0% 57.8% 1.73 -8.3%

Home O1.5 35.2% 29.9% 3.35 +17.9%

Away O1.5 49.8% 57.8% 1.73 -13.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 22.3%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob53.0%

A 52% / xG 1.0-1.6 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 0–1 11.3%

#3 1–2 9.6%

#4 0–2 9.2%

#5 0–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Drogheda Utd1.0

Bohemians1.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.2%

Form & verdict PPG

DROGHEDA UTD · PPG 1.27

BOHEMIANS · PPG 1.92

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.92) vs Home AVERAGE (1.27)

Win probability 1X2

Drogheda Utd (H) 22.7%

ODDS 4.70 · IMPLIED 21.3% EV +4.0%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -2.2%

Bohemians (A) 51.6%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -12.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Drogheda Utd face Bohemians in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, July 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Drogheda Utd a 23% chance, the draw 26% and Bohemians 52%, so Bohemians are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Drogheda Utd and 1.6 for Bohemians (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Drogheda Utd are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 1.92 for Bohemians. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +17.9%.

Drogheda Utd vs Bohemians Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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