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Galway United vs Waterford Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Regular Season - 25 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 16:00

Galway United

PPG 1.55 · HOME

UPCOMING

Waterford

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-13.3%0-22.4%0-31.2%0-4+0.6%1 1-05.3%1-17.7%1-25.6%1-32.7%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.2%2-19.0%2-26.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.8%3-17.0%3-25.1%3-32.4%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-17.1%4+-25.1%4+-32.5%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.3% 54.3% 1.84 -3.8%

Draw 21.6% 25.3% 3.95 -8.8%

Away win 26.1% 27.4% 3.65 -2.8%

Over 2.5 67.0% 64.5% 1.55 +3.9%

Over 3.5 45.8% 42.6% 2.35 +7.6%

BTTS 64.5% 66.7% 1.50 -3.3%

Home O1.5 61.8% 60.6% 1.65 +2.0%

Away O1.5 45.8% 40.8% 2.45 +12.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 6.0%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob64.5%

H 52% / xG 2.3-1.4 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.0%

#2 1–1 7.7%

#3 3–1 7.0%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 2–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Galway United2.3

Waterford1.4

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 45.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GALWAY UNITED · PPG 1.55

WATERFORD · PPG 0.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.89 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Galway United (H) 52.3%

ODDS 1.84 · IMPLIED 54.3% EV -3.8%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -8.8%

Waterford (A) 26.1%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -2.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Galway United face Waterford in Ireland - Premier Division on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Galway United a 52% chance, the draw 22% and Waterford 26%, so Galway United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Galway United and 1.4 for Waterford (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Galway United are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 0.67 for Waterford. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +12.2%.

Galway United vs Waterford Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - Premier Division Predictions