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Derry City vs Drogheda Utd Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Regular Season - 22 ·Friday, June 26, 2026, 18:45

Derry City

PPG 1.55 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Drogheda Utd

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 58.1% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a clear edge.

+10.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-16.7%0-23.4%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.3%1-111.4%1-25.7%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.7%2-19.7%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.5%3-15.5%3-22.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-13.5%4+-21.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 52.6% 1.55 -18.5%

Draw 24.0% 3.85 -4.6%

Away win 23.4% 6.00 +24.2%

Over 2.5 58.1% 1.90 +10.4%

Over 3.5 36.0% 3.25 +17.0%

BTTS 55.8% 1.85 +3.2%

Home Over 1.5 52.6% 1.70 -10.6%

Away Over 1.5 33.1% 4.33 +43.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 22.3%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.8%

H 53% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0✓ 9.7%

#4 1–0 11.3%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Derry City1.7

Drogheda Utd1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.1% · O3.5 PROB 36.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DERRY CITY · PPG 1.55

DROGHEDA UTD · PPG 0.80

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.55) > Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Derry City (H) 52.6%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -18.5%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -4.6%

Drogheda Utd (A) 23.4%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +24.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Derry City face Drogheda Utd in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, June 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Derry City a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Drogheda Utd 23%, so Derry City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Derry City and 1.0 for Drogheda Utd (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Derry City are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 0.80 for Drogheda Utd. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +43.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Derry City vs Drogheda Utd Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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