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St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Regular Season - 25 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 19:00

St Patrick's Athl.

PPG 2.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Dundalk

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 61.8% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-14.4%0-21.8%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.1%1-19.3%1-23.9%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.7%2-19.8%2-24.1%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.2%3-16.9%3-22.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-07.1%4+-15.9%4+-22.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.0% 64.1% 1.56 -11.1%

Draw 22.5% 25.3% 3.95 -6.7%

Away win 20.4% 17.5% 5.70 +9.8%

Over 2.5 60.7% 58.8% 1.70 +3.2%

Over 3.5 37.5% 35.7% 2.80 +5.0%

BTTS 54.5% 57.8% 1.73 -5.7%

Home O1.5 61.8% 62.5% 1.60 -1.1%

Away O1.5 20.1% 27.4% 3.65 -16.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 6.0%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob54.5%

H 57% / xG 2.1-0.8 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.7%

#2 1–1 9.3%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 11.1%

#5 3–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St Patrick's Athl.2.1

Dundalk0.8

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ST PATRICK'S ATHL. · PPG 2.33

DUNDALK · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.27 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

St Patrick's Athl. (H) 57.0%

ODDS 1.56 · IMPLIED 64.1% EV -11.1%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -6.7%

Dundalk (A) 20.4%

ODDS 5.70 · IMPLIED 17.5% EV +9.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

St Patrick's Athl. face Dundalk in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 57% chance, the draw 23% and Dundalk 20%, so St Patrick's Athl. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.8 for Dundalk (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.25 for Dundalk. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +7.2%.

St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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