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St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Matchday 25 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 19:00

St Patrick's Athl.

PPG 2.33 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWWL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Dundalk

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLLW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 61% chance

Model probability 55.7% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-14.9%0-22.0%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.2%1-19.8%1-23.9%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.1%2-19.7%2-23.9%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.1%3-16.5%3-22.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.3%4+-15.1%4+-22.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.0% 64.1% 1.56 -11.1%

Draw 22.5% 24.4% 4.10 -4.7%

Away win 20.4% 18.5% 5.40 +6.1%

Over 2.5 56.2% 60.6% 1.65 -7.3%

Over 3.5 34.8% 38.2% 2.62 -8.8%

BTTS 52.3% 59.9% 1.67 -12.7%

Home O1.5 55.7% 63.7% 1.57 -12.6%

Away O1.5 20.1% 29.4% 3.40 -19.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.3%

H 57% / xG 2.0-0.8 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.1%

#2 1–1✓ 9.8%

#3 1–0 12.2%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 3–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St Patrick's Athl.2.0

Dundalk0.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.2% · O3.5 PROB 34.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ST PATRICK'S ATHL. · PPG 2.33

DUNDALK · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

61%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.19 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

St Patrick's Athl. (H) 57.0%

ODDS 1.56 · IMPLIED 64.1% EV -11.1%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -4.7%

Dundalk (A) 20.4%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +6.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

St Patrick's Athl. face Dundalk in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 57% chance, the draw 23% and Dundalk 20%, so St Patrick's Athl. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.8 for Dundalk (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.25 for Dundalk. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +2.1%. This match finished 1-1.

St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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