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Shamrock Rovers vs Galway Utd Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Regular Season - 22 ·Friday, June 26, 2026, 18:30

Shamrock Rovers

PPG 2.36 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Galway Utd

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.7% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-16.8%0-22.8%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.7%1-111.3%1-24.7%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.5%2-19.5%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.4%3-15.3%3-22.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-13.3%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 53.7% 1.42 -23.8%

Draw 24.6% 4.33 +3.9%

Away win 21.7% 7.60 +39.0%

Over 2.5 49.8% 1.67 -16.8%

Over 3.5 28.6% 2.65 -14.5%

BTTS 52.2% 1.80 -6.0%

Home Over 1.5 52.6% 1.48 -22.1%

Away Over 1.5 22.9% 4.33 -0.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 22.3%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.2%

H 54% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–0 13.7%

#3 2–0 11.5%

#4 0–0 8.2%

#5 2–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shamrock Rovers1.7

Galway Utd0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.8% · O3.5 PROB 28.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SHAMROCK ROVERS · PPG 2.36

GALWAY UTD · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.36) vs P(Home)=53.7%

Win probability 1X2

Shamrock Rovers (H) 53.7%

ODDS 1.42 · IMPLIED 70.4% EV -23.8%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +3.9%

Galway Utd (A) 21.7%

ODDS 7.60 · IMPLIED 13.2% EV +39.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shamrock Rovers face Galway Utd in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, June 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shamrock Rovers a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Galway Utd 22%, so Shamrock Rovers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Shamrock Rovers and 0.8 for Galway Utd (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shamrock Rovers are averaging 2.36 points per game versus 1.00 for Galway Utd. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +39.0%. This match finished 3-1.

Shamrock Rovers vs Galway Utd Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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